We are proud to share our latest research, which has uncovered several key insights that provide a new perspective on the current state and future trajectory of the market.

Looking back at global smartphone market shipments in recent years, 2023 bottomed out at 1.134 billion units, reached 1.181 billion units in 2024, and climbed to 1.22 billion units in 2025. However, entering 2026, the market faces severe challenges. Current estimates suggest shipments will drop significantly to 1.05 billion units, representing a steep year-over-year (YoY) decline of 13.9%. Some pessimistic forecasts even project the total volume could plunge to 900 million units. Despite the severe recession in the broader market, a significant polarization in global competition has emerged. Apple and Samsung are expected to buck the trend and deliver YoY growth this year. Their growth momentum primarily stems from the across-the-board decline of Chinese brands, allowing Apple and Samsung to harvest market share globally. Therefore, the extreme cost-reduction strategies and the supply chain "downgrading" trends discussed in this report primarily focus on an in-depth analysis of the survival rules for **Chinese brands** caught in this double squeeze.

With the comprehensive explosion of artificial intelligence applications, AI computing demand is devouring massive memory resources like a black hole, triggering a chain reaction of "Chipflation" across the semiconductor supply chain. According to supply chain checks and manufacturer data, our research team estimates that the total shipment volume of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) is expected to experience staggering, explosive growth, surging from approximately 2.9 BGb (Billion Gigabit) in 2023 to a scale exceeding 34.3 BGb by 2026. Against the backdrop of multiple structural constraints within the supply chain—including tight wafer supply, limited cleanroom space, extended lead times for EUV lithography equipment, and bottlenecked advanced packaging capacities—it is currently observed that the tight memory supply situation may persist for several quarters or perhaps even years. This report analyzes the total HBM shipment growth in 2026, the shifting market shares among the top three memory manufacturers, and the consumption volumes and specification evolutions of major AI chip clients.

The 2026 iPhone production forecast has been revised upward to 260–270 million units, driven by stable pricing and supply chain advantages. Although 1H26 faces production shifts due to A19 processor constraints, robust demand for the iPhone 17 series is offsetting legacy model declines. The anticipated Q4 launch of the Foldable iPhone will further bolster shipment momentum, ensuring a strong performance for the second half of the year.

According to Isaiah Research estimates, TSMC's HPC (High-Performance Computing) business will reach a historic milestone in the first quarter of 2026 (1Q26), with single-quarter revenue poised to challenge the USD 20 billion mark. Overall HPC revenue is expected to see a solid Quarter-over-Quarter (QoQ) growth of approximately 7% to 9% (an increase of about USD 1.4 to 1.6 billion). The growth momentum has shifted from relying solely on a single customer's hardware iterations to being jointly driven by AI "hot-run" premiums and a massive surge in demand for custom ASICs
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Should Chinese chip designers win orders, they could still struggle for production capacity given constraints U.S. curbs put on foundries such as TSMC (2330.TW) from working with Chinese firms, said Isaiah Research Vice President Lucy Chen.

The waiver is “good news” for TSMC, as it allows the company to continue with expansion plans for its 28-nanometer chips in Nanjing, China, says Lucy Chen, vice president of Isaiah Research, a Taiwan-based tech-research firm.

Apple added five new mainland Chinese suppliers while removing eight in mainland China in its latest financial year ended September 2022, after China’s strict Covid-19 controls disrupted iPhone production last holiday season, according to the latest supplier list published by the US consumer electronics giant.

Foxconn may lose some iPhone 15 work to other Chinese manufacturers after it failed to deliver iPhone 14s last November due to Covid disruptions. New arrangement marks the first time Apple has tapped three suppliers to produce premium iPhones, highlighting efforts to smooth the supply chain
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