Key Takeaways Strategic BoM Reallocation: Memory has become a "cost black hole," with its share of the total Bill of Materials jumping from 15% to 25%. This shift is forcing brands to freeze hardware upgrades and cannibalize budgets from other components like displays and cameras to preserve margins. Divergent Defensive Maneuvers: Apple is leveraging its massive scale to force price cuts (10–15%) from non-memory suppliers to offset costs. In contrast, Android OEMs are resorting to "specification regressions," such as reverting to LCD panels and capping DRAM at 12GB, while utilizing older, cheaper flagship processors. Market Contraction via Price Hikes: Retail prices are expected to rise by RMB 100 to 400, leading to a projected 5% decline in global shipments. Chinese brands face the steepest challenge, with a potential 10% contraction as price-sensitive consumers pull back in response to higher costs and stalled innovation.
Key Takeaways Strategic Pivot to HBM/DRAM: Major suppliers (Samsung, SK hynix, Micron) are structurally reducing NAND capacity, with 2027 levels projected to be 40% lower than the 2022 peak. Capital and fab space are being diverted to high-margin, AI-driven HBM and advanced DRAM. Supply Constraints through 2026: Despite rising AI demand, vendors remain conservative due to 2023 losses. Since significant new capacity will not arrive until after 2027, the market will face a "tight supply-demand balance" through 2026. Focus on Technology Node Transition: The industry consensus is to meet demand through technology node transitions to increase bit density (Gb/mm²) rather than blindly building new wafer fabs. This technical upgrade drives bit output growth while maintaining supply discipline.
Key Takeaways: • Supply chain rebalancing: $16.5B Samsung deal reduces Tesla's TSMC reliance for next-generation chips while securing U.S.-based production • Architectural paradigm shift: AI6 enables vehicle-embedded Dojo capabilities, potentially eliminating training/inference hardware separation • Timeline convergence: 2028-2030 mass production aligns with Robotaxi commercialization and Cybercab platform requirements
Key Takeaways: • Material progression strategy: Systematic evolution from graphite→indium→liquid metal aligns with increasing power densities in R100/Venice/M4/M5 Ultra generation • Process complexity amplification: Liquid metal TIM demands UV-curable dielectric coating and six-sided AOI inspection, elevating manufacturing sophistication • Supply chain verticalization: In-house TIM control provides competitive differentiation while ensuring process reliability for premium HPC customers
Background: On March 3, TSMC announced plans to increase its investment in the United States by an additional $100 billion, bringing its total commitment to $165 billion. This expanded investment plan includes the construction of three new semiconductor fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a major research and development center. However, these investments are likely to change as Taiwan communicates with the United States.
The iPhone SE4 is expected to launch in 1Q25, with mass production likely beginning in November Y2024.
Xiaomi is collaborating with Novatek again to develop RAMless OLED TDDI, providing a more cost-competitive solution.
We check that LGD and BOE completed verification for the iPhone 16 series in Jun'24 and Jul'24. Both suppliers are on track for initial production, indicating earlier verification timelines compared to the previous year.
OmniVision has maintained a cost-effective position in the CIS market through its collaboration with SMIC, which offers lower wafer prices, especially in Y2023.
HHG may increase its wafer prices by around 10% in 3Q24, depending on product complexity and process platform.
Apple might position the second generation of Vision Pro to be consumer-type with a relatively more affordable retail price of $1,500. The project of Vision Pro 2 may kick off in May’24 and aims to be announced in 4Q25.
OPPO and vivo may be highly confirmed to suspend the release of their flip foldable models, Find N4 Flip and X Flip 2.