iPhone 1H26 Production Forecast: Steady 2026 Volume Driven by Early Q1 Builds

We estimate finalized iPhone production for the full year of 2025 to be in the range of 248–249 million units. Looking ahead to the full year of 2026, we expect overall iPhone shipments to remain flat or increase slightly compared to 2025. This outlook remains contingent on the market demand for the upcoming iPhone 18 Pro and Foldable models, as well as the stability of upstream wafer production. For the first half of 2026 (1H26), we anticipate a robust production plan characterized by significant Year-over-Year (YoY) growth:

1. 1H26 Build Plan and Strong YoY Growth For the first half of 2026, the overall build plan for the iPhone 17 series and the new Air model is expected to reach approximately 90-92 million units. Compared to the previous year, we estimate strong YoY growth in the overall production plan of approximately 18 percent for the first quarter (1Q26) and 20 percent for the second quarter (2Q26).

2. Q1 Strategic Pull-in and Q2 Production Shifts The substantial production increase in 1Q26 is primarily driven by an early pull-in of the iPhone 17 Pro, followed by the iPhone Air, with only minor adjustments made to other models. Moving into 2Q26, we observe a slight production increase for the legacy iPhone 16. However, this is offset by a sequential decline in iPhone 17 Pro production, which is a direct result of the accelerated pull-in executed during the first quarter.

3. iPhone Air Production Forecast Minor Correction Regarding the product mix, the production plan for the Air model has seen a minor upward revision. This adjustment is primarily a baseline correction from a previously overly conservative forecast, rather than an indication of strong supply chain confidence. The 1H26 build plan for the Air model has been slightly increased from the original plan of less than 1 million units to approximately 1-1.5 million units.

Summary: The 2026 outlook indicates steady overall volume with the potential for slight growth, heavily dependent on late-year flagship and foldable demand, alongside component supply stability. The first half of 2026 is defined by strong double-digit YoY production growth, driven by strategic early pull-ins of the iPhone 17 Pro and a minor baseline correction for the new Air model's initial build plan.