TSMC announced a total of $100 billion in new investments, but the technology and mass production timeline remain highly uncertain.

Isaiah’s Viewpoints:

Background: On March 3, TSMC announced plans to increase its investment in the United States by an additional $100 billion, bringing its total commitment to $165 billion. This expanded investment plan includes the construction of three new semiconductor fabrication plants, two advanced packaging facilities, and a major research and development center. However, these investments are likely to change as Taiwan communicates with the United States.

TSMC’s previously confirmed investment in Arizona already comprises a multi-phase development plan. The first factory is operational and focuses on 4nm and 5nm nodes, with engineering samples already in circulation. The second factory, initially intended for 3nm production, has been upgraded to accommodate 2nm technology, with mass production expected by 2028 in response to U.S. demands for cutting-edge chip manufacturing. The third facility is set to manufacture the 1.6nm (A16) node, projected to commence production around 2030. This accelerated technological roadmap is driven by U.S. regulatory and industry needs, ensuring that Arizona becomes a pivotal hub for advanced semiconductor manufacturing. The site will support multiple node families, including N2, N2P, and A16, positioning TSMC’s Arizona operations as a critical node in the global semiconductor supply chain.

While TSMC’s increased investment in the U.S. brings substantial economic and technological benefits, there remain uncertainties regarding its execution. These insights and numbers reflect a rapid evaluation conducted by TSMC’s CFO, senior vice presidents, and CC Wei. They represent preliminary decisions; further discussions and detailed analyses are expected before final outcomes are confirmed. The Arizona site has sufficient space to accommodate the expanded facilities, including the newly announced foundries, packaging, and R&D centers. However, the specifics of the new factories' technological choices and production timelines remain flexible. Additionally, ongoing negotiations between TSMC and the U.S. government over technology transfer issues present a significant factor that could influence long-term operational strategies. The establishment of a major R&D center raises concerns over potential indirect technology transfer, which could impact Taiwan’s semiconductor industry. As TSMC navigates these complexities, further discussions and refinements in investment plans are anticipated before the full impact of this expansion becomes clear.