Industrial Data Update: iPhone Production Forecasts Continue to Surpass Historical Peaks
January 06, 2026
According to the latest data from Isaiah Research, the 2025 iPhone production forecast has been adjusted upward to 247–249 million units. The growth in 4Q25 is primarily fueled by the iPhone 17 Pro series, with the Pro model showing higher volume than the Pro Max. Meanwhile, the iPhone 16 series has seen minimal volatility, with adjustments kept under 500k units.
Looking into 1Q26, we anticipate a slight increase of 1–2 million units, spearheaded by the iPhone 17 Pro Max. However, the launch of the iPhone 17e may result in a slight cannibalization of the standard iPhone 17's production volume.
Reflecting on recent months, the iPhone 17 previously saw significant growth driven by its competitive pricing and features. Conversely, the iPhone 17 Air underwent downward revisions due to its niche market positioning. We believe the adjustments for both models have reached a plateau, and the focus has now shifted to the exceptionally strong momentum of the Pro series.
The information we shared is only a short excerpt of our monthly report. If you have further interest in our research and findings, we would be happy to provide you with a more detailed and comprehensive report that includes additional insights and data points. Please contact us to access our full insights.
Authors
Eddie Han
Eddie Han, Sr. Analyst/Research Director at Isaiah Research, has been studying smartphone industry for 10+ years. Focus on smartphone and the related components supply chain research. Master in Social Enterprise, Fu Jen Catholic University, Taiwan. Currently as the Sr. Analyst/Research Manager of Smartphone Team at Isaiah Research and lead 3+ members to work on supply chain analysis from smartphone(Apple/Android), 5G, RF, camera, display to XR research with a solid methodology. Business development and customer management include top-tier smarphone brands and components vendors. Used to work as Sr. Industry Analyst/Section Manager for 10+ years at Market Intelligence and Consulting (MIC). Conduct 150+ smartphone industry reports on OEM/EMS/ODM shipment tracker, application processor, radio frequency, display and 5G communication related research.
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