2026 iPhone Production Forecast Upgraded to 260-270M Units on Strong iPhone 17 Momentum and Upcoming Foldable Launch

April 10, 2026

We estimate finalized iPhone production for the full year of 2026 to be in the range of 260–270 million units. This represents a significant upward revision from our October 2025 initial estimate of 235 million units, primarily driven by Apple’s strategic decision to maintain stable pricing despite rising memory costs, as well as a more secured memory supply chain compared to Android competitors. For the first half of 2026 (1H26), we anticipate the following production dynamics:

  1. 1H26 Production Plan and Quarterly Shifts

    The overall iPhone production plan for 1H26 remains approximately 120–122 million units. Notably, we observe a shift of 3–4 million units from 1Q26 into 2Q26, specifically targeting the iPhone 17 base and Pro models. This shift is likely driven by longer lead times and tight capacity for TSMC’s A19 and A19 Pro application processors, as Apple has significantly increased the build plan for the iPhone 17 series.

  2. Product Mix Adjustments and Strong 17 Series Demand

    Given the enhanced value proposition of the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro in the current market environment, we have revised the 1H26 build plans. Legacy models, including the iPhone 15 and 16, have seen a downward revision of 1.5–2 million units compared to previous forecasts. Conversely, the iPhone 17 and 17 Pro plans have been revised upward by 1–1.5 million units.

  3. Foldable iPhone Production Schedule

    We maintain our forecast for the mass production of the Foldable iPhone in the fourth quarter of 2026. Although its production ramp-up is expected to occur slightly later than the iPhone 18 Pro series, it remains a critical factor in supporting shipment momentum for the second half of the year.

Summary: The 2026 outlook reflects a strong upward trend, with full-year production estimates raised to the 260–270 million range. While 1H26 faces minor quarterly shifts due to processor capacity constraints, the robust demand for the iPhone 17 series and the anticipated arrival of the Foldable model in Q4 will sustain high shipment volume through the end of the year.

The information we shared is only a short excerpt of our monthly report. If you have further interest in our research and findings, we would be happy to provide you with a more detailed and comprehensive report that includes additional insights and data points. Please contact us to access our full insights.

Authors

Eric Tseng

Eric Tseng, CEO at Isaiah Research, is an experienced professional with over 20 years of industry experience, specializing in Apple and Display supply chain research. He holds an MBA from the University of Southern California in the United States. Currently serving as the CEO at Isaiah Research, Eric leads a high-performing Business Development team of more than four members, working closely with some of the most renowned clients in the industry, including Samsung, SK Hynix, Corning, SMIC, BOE, and many others. His strategic thinking and creative problem-solving skills have been instrumental in building strong relationships and driving growth and profitability for the organization. Prior to his current role, Eric held key positions in the procurement departments of Foxconn and HP. His experience in supply chain analysis and market trend forecasting provides invaluable insights to Isaiah’s clients, helping them make informed decisions and stay ahead of the competition.

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