iPhone 15 Series Production and Manufacturers’ Allocation: 1)Our Y2023 iPhone 15 series production forecast: 85~90M. 2)Despite yield issues on specific components, like 2-layer pixel sensors in low-end models and periscope in iPhone 15 Pro Max, iPhone 15 series could begin mass production in late July or early August.
Samsung Foundry’s GAA Process Leadership and Acceleration: 1) Samsung Foundry led the first commercial GAA process tape-out. 2) To speed up GAA process adoption, Samsung Foundry introduced 2nd gen 3GAP development for internal demand, primarily from LSI with less refined PDK.
iPhone Sales and Production: Thanks to better-than-expected performance in 51 labor holiday and early-bird 618 promotion within Mainland China, we revise up iPhone production forecast in 2Q23 from 33~38M to 37~42M.
Japan Restriction on Semiconductor Equipment: In May 2023, Japan announced semiconductor equipment restrictions starting in July 2023. The restricted equipment includes lithography, etching, implanting, thin film deposition, cleaning, and metrology.
As iPhone’s price promotion has been ended in Mainland China, we observe the demand in 2Q23 has been weaker-than-expected and thus we revised down our 2Q23 forecast from 37~42M to 32~37M.
TSMC's N3 demand remains positive, ensuring full utilization through 2Q23. N4/5 also maintains momentum, leading to increased utilization in 2Q23. Additionally, the growing demand for server chips from Nvidia and Ampere keeps N6/7 utilization on the rise in 2Q23.
The iPhone sales in Mainland China have slightly increased due to price discounts, leading us to revise our estimation from 52~57M to 53~58M in 1Q23. However, we remain conservative for the iPhone production forecast in 2Q23 as we haven’t seen a strong demand recovery. We preliminary expect the iPhone 15 series production in Y2023 may be in the range of 85~90M, with 40% low-end and 60% high-end models in the product mix.
TSMC is expected to continue transferring foundry capacities from 4/5nm to 3nm in Tainan Fab 18 due to slower wafer demand for the former and increased migration to the latter. In anticipation of strong wafer demand in the coming years, particularly from major clients like Apple, Qualcomm, MediaTek, and AMD, TSMC's 3nm capacities are projected to reach 50-60K/m in Y2023 and 90-100K/m in Y2024.
After Chinese New Year, we observed the sales momentum may not sustain on a long-term basis. Thus, we revised down the iPhone production shipment forecast to 52~57M in 1Q23. We believe the current iPhone’s retail price cut in February within Mainland China may also be one of the indications that the demand may be declining, and thus we hold a conservative view in 2Q23.
Our research indicates that TSMC's N3 UT (utilization rate) is likely to increase in the first quarter of 2023 and remain fully utilized in the second quarter. However, N4/5 UT may experience a decline in the first quarter followed by a gradual recovery in the second quarter. Meanwhile, N6/7 UT is expected to decrease to the mid-60s due to weakened demand and inventory issues.
After the China’s reopening, we observed that demand for iPhone in January may be stronger-than-expected thanks to the Chinese New Year. We therefore slightly revise up our iPhone production forecast to 61~66M in 1Q23. Compared to iPhone 13 Pro series’ End-of-Life (EOL) plan in Sep’22, iPhone 14 Pro series might face their EOLs in Jun’23, which is comparatively shorter. Thus, we estimate the iPhone production shipments in 2Q23 to be a 15~20% YoY decline.
According to our research, we briefly updated TSMC Arizona Fab21 Schedule as below, 1) P1 tool move-in has been delayed to May’23 due to prolonged clearances and import process of wafer equipment tools. 2) P2 has been under construction and expected topping and tools move-in in 3Q24.
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