Several ecommerce platforms such as JinDon, Taobao, and Pinduoduo, in Mainland China have already offered discounts on iPhone 15 series in late October for the upcoming Double-eleven shopping festival. Although it’s a signal that iPhone may not perform as well as expected in Mainland China, we haven’t seen 4Q23 production plan has been revised down so far.
After Sony’s effort on the 2-layer pixel main camera sensor in these two months, we have seen the volume of two low-end models have increased thanks to the yield rate improvement and we thus revise up iPhone 15 base model production volume by 2~3M in 3Q23. As a result, we adjust our Y2023 new iPhone production forecast from 77~82M to 79~84M.
The capacity expansion for global 22/28nm was initially forecasted to grow by 15% to 20% in Y2024 and Y2025. However, due to the global economic downturn and subdued consumer demand, foundries have postponed the expansion plans. The revised rate for capacity expansion has been adjusted to 10% to 15% for the same period.
Due to component yield rate issues, we have observed new iPhone production plan may slightly push out from 3Q23 to 4Q23, and we thus adjust our forecast from 51~55M to 45~50M in 3Q23 and 75~80M to 77~82M in 4Q23.
TSMC's 2nm construction sites are likely to be located at Fab12B and Fab20 in Hsinchu, and Fab22 in Kaohsiung. As for Taichung, there might be pending in the schedule due to environmental concerns.
We revise up 3Q23 iPhone Production forecast to 51~55M as we observe three of four iPhone 15 models have been mass produced in July and upward revision in iPhone 14.
We expect the price trend of DDIC (Display Driver IC) to continue to decrease into 2H23, mainly driven by weaker-than-expected demand recovery for the global smartphone market and potential wafer price cut for tier 2/3 foundries.
iPhone 15 Series Production and Manufacturers’ Allocation:
1)Our Y2023 iPhone 15 series production forecast: 85~90M.
2)Despite yield issues on specific components, like 2-layer pixel sensors in low-end models and periscope in iPhone 15 Pro Max, iPhone 15 series could begin mass production in late July or early August.
Samsung Foundry’s GAA Process Leadership and Acceleration:
1) Samsung Foundry led the first commercial GAA process tape-out.
2) To speed up GAA process adoption, Samsung Foundry introduced 2nd gen 3GAP development for internal demand, primarily from LSI with less refined PDK.
iPhone Sales and Production: Thanks to better-than-expected performance in 51 labor holiday and early-bird 618 promotion within Mainland China, we revise up iPhone production forecast in 2Q23 from 33~38M to 37~42M.
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