The Memory Super Cycle Arrives: Tech Giants Bet Heavy on HBM! Decoding the Geopolitical Expansion and Capacity Supremacy War of Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron

I. Rapid Expansion of the Supply-Demand Gap

The dual pressures of a demand explosion and supply bottlenecks have led to a rapid deterioration in the sufficiency rate.

1. Demand Explosion: By 2026, the overall year-over-year (YoY) demand growth rate for DRAM and NAND is projected to reach 50 to 60 percent. Entering 2027, demand is expected to grow by another 40 to 50 percent.
2. Supply Constraints: Limited by extremely long lead times for new plant construction and yield tuning, the YoY supply growth rate for 2026 and 2027 is estimated to land between 15 and 20 percent. This has caused the supply-demand gap to surge from a historical 1 to 9 percent (single digits) to a long-term high of over 20 to 25 percent.

II. DRAM Capital Expenditure and Global Layout: Robust Growth Driven by HBM

Advanced processes and HBM expansion are currently the absolute core of investments, driving total global DRAM investment from 50 billion to 51 billion USD in 2024 to a projected 77 billion to 78 billion USD in 2026. The regional expansion strategies of the major players are as follows:

1. Samsung's Capacity Defense: Investment ranges up to 25 billion to 26 billion USD. Its P5 plant in Pyeongtaek, South Korea, has entered the reconstruction phase and is expected to fully transition to supporting HBM capacity to defend its leading market position.
2. SK hynix's Aggressive Layout: Capital expenditure has surged to 24 billion to 26 billion USD, a scale nearly matching Samsung. Its expansion targets are extremely clear. For its HBM core, the M15X plant in Cheongju and the new plant in Yongin, South Korea, are both scheduled to begin operations in February 2026. For advanced packaging, the P&T7 plant in Cheongju and the new plant in Indiana, US, are targeting mass production by 2028.
3. Micron's Global Decentralization Strategy: Investment has grown to 18 billion to 19 billion USD, focusing on a multi-region layout. In its US homeland, Micron is expanding in Clay, New York; Boise, Idaho; and Manassas, Virginia, aiming to shift 35 to 45 percent of its DRAM capacity to the US. For its Asian hubs, it is investing 6 billion to 8 billion USD in Singapore to build an HBM advanced packaging facility, while concurrently investing 1.5 billion to 2 billion USD in its Tongluo plant in Miaoli, Taiwan, to expand DRAM capacity.

III. NAND Capital Expenditure: Growth Slowdown and Market Share Defense War

Compared to the heavy investments in DRAM, the total projected global NAND investment in 2026 will only increase slightly to 21 billion to 22 billion USD (a YoY growth rate of only 1 to 2 percent), and vendor strategies have severely diverged:

1. Samsung's Strategic Reduction: Investment has plummeted to 4.5 billion to 5.5 billion USD, fully tilting the group's resources toward DRAM and HBM. SK hynix is also maintaining a modest investment of only 2 billion to 3 billion USD.
2. Micron and Kioxia's Long-Term Moat: Both are seizing the opportunity to expand their market footprint while the market leader shifts focus. Micron's NAND investment has doubled to 3.5 billion to 4 billion USD, primarily benefiting from its ten-year, 23 billion to 25 billion USD long-term NAND expansion plan initiated in Singapore. Meanwhile, Kioxia and SanDisk's capital expenditure has grown significantly to 3 billion to 3.5 billion USD. The two parties officially announced the extension of their joint venture agreement for the Yokkaichi, Mie, and Kitakami, Iwate plants in Japan through 2034, demonstrating a strong ambition to secure their foundation.

Conclusion

The memory industry is entering a geopolitical expansion phase centered on HBM and advanced packaging. While Samsung and SK hynix are betting heavily on AI with their capacities in South Korea and the US, Micron and Kioxia are seizing the traditional memory market through long-term layouts in Singapore, Japan, and Taiwan. Facing a demand explosion of up to 50 to 60 percent in the next two years, manufacturers with flexible global dispatching capabilities and HBM mass production advantages will be the biggest winners in this super cycle.