AI Computing Ignites "Chipflation": 2026 HBM Supply-Demand Structure and Memory Market Landscape Forecast

I. The Formation of Chipflation and Structural Constraints in the HBM Supply Chain

1. Comprehensive Capacity Crowding-Out Driven by AI Demand Current market sentiment generally suggests that "Chipflation" is not only reflected in the strong support for average selling prices (ASP), but it also heavily manifests in the severe crowding-out of manufacturing resources. The production of HBM requires not only the consumption of massive DRAM wafers but also involves complex through-silicon via (TSV) and stacking processes, which may significantly prolong the production cycle.

• Key Manufacturing Bottlenecks: Based on current observations, factors including the supply of basic silicon wafers, the availability of high-end cleanroom space, the delivery schedules of EUV lithography machines, and the advanced packaging capacity of foundries like TSMC (such as CoWoS, Chip on Wafer on Substrate), have all become structural supply limitations.
• Formation of Long-Term Agreement Mechanisms: To ensure sufficient capacity for the coming years, we observe that an increasing number of IC design clients are signing long-term agreements (LTAs) with memory manufacturers and foundries. This further locks up the available supply circulating in the market, leading us to estimate that a structural shortage of HBM may become the new norm.

2. TSMC's Role and Estimated Actual Available Capacity

• TSMC Consumption Estimates: According to current projections, by the year 2026, the HBM consumed solely by TSMC during the advanced packaging process may reach approximately 24 BGb.
• Yield Rates and Wastage Costs: It is worth noting that this estimated consumption of 24 BGb accounts for roughly 80% of the total HBM supply estimated for that time. This implies that during the chip integration process, there are process excursions, stacking defects, and inevitable yield loss. As HBM stacking moves toward 12-Hi and perhaps even 16-Hi configurations in the future, the control of production yield rates will directly impact the final shipment volume of HPC (High Performance Computing) chips.

II. The Reshuffling of the Big Three Memory Makers and Technological Rivalry

1. SK Hynix Secures the Lead, Samsung Follows Closely with Capacity Advantages As HBM specifications rapidly transition from HBM3 to HBM3E, and perhaps toward HBM4 in the near future, the market share distribution among the top three memory manufacturers is also undergoing dynamic shifts.

• SK Hynix: Leveraging the yield rate advantages established during the HBM3 generation and its tight-knit collaboration with TSMC, it is expected to maintain an absolute leadership position of 50% to 60% in 2026, with estimated shipments potentially reaching 18-19 BGb.
• Samsung: Relying on its massive overall DRAM production capacity and integrated testing and packaging capabilities, Samsung is rapidly catching up. Their goal is to capture a 25% to 35% market share within the next two years, with 2026 shipment estimates looking toward 15-16 BGb.
• Micron: Although it entered the market relatively late, by adopting a strategy to skip directly to HBM3E, it is currently expected to steadily secure around a 10% to 20% share, with a 2026 shipment scale estimated at roughly 6-6.5 BGb.

2. Technological Hurdles and Wafer Consumption in the HBM4/4E Generation Looking ahead to HBM4E and next-generation products, the technological complexity is expected to experience exponential growth.

• Pin Speed and Interface Upgrades: Our research team anticipates significant improvements in the pin speed of next-generation products. To accommodate higher bandwidth demands, the design and manufacturing complexity of the underlying base die will likely increase substantially.
• Intensified DRAM Wafer Consumption: Since the size of a single HBM die may increase to accommodate thermal dissipation and advanced circuit designs, coupled with yield challenges, we project that producing the equivalent capacity of HBM4/4E will consume significantly more DRAM wafers compared to previous generations. This may lead to the production capacity for traditional standard DDR5 memory being further squeezed.

III. Breakdown of Major Client Consumption and Next-Generation Chip Specifications

The demand for HBM is rapidly expanding from a single major client to a broader customer base, though the landscape dominated by GPU giants may be difficult to shake in the short term. Based on the estimated 2026 HBM consumption share, the total demand is projected to be around 3.4 million Gigabytes (KGB/TB, equivalent to roughly 3.4 Exabytes) or more.

1. Nvidia and AMD Dominate the Absolute Majority of HBM Consumption

• Nvidia: As the market leader, it is estimated to consume up to 70% of the total HBM production capacity. Taking the soon-to-be-ramped Blackwell architecture as an example, it is equipped with HBM3E 12-Hi memory, with a single chip configured with a massive 288 GB of capacity. Looking toward the next-generation Rubin architecture in 2026, it is understood that the estimated shipment volume could reach 2.5 million to 2.7 million units, and it will likely adopt the HBM4 specification, with capacity expected to be pushed even higher.
• AMD: Currently accounts for roughly 10% of the consumption share. Its MI300X series is already equipped with 192 GB of HBM3, and the future MI400 or MI450 series will likely transition to HBM4 12-Hi stacking technology. According to supply chain surveys, the HBM capacity equipped on these next-generation chips is expected to surpass 400 GB in one fell swoop, serving as a massive catalyst for driving up per-device memory usage.

2. Demand Expansion from Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) Developing In-House Chips Beyond commercial GPUs, the application-specific integrated circuit (ASIC) projects of large cloud service providers are also a growth driver that cannot be ignored.

• AWS and Google: AWS's Trainium 3 (expected to use HBM3E 12-Hi) is estimated to account for 6-8% of the share; meanwhile, Google's TPU v7 and v8 series projects also contribute an estimated 5-7% of the total.
• Other Players (Meta / Broadcom, etc.): Combined, they account for roughly 10%. This indicates that the construction of AI servers has gradually moved from relying solely on Nvidia towards a stage where customized and diversified architectures run in parallel, thereby further expanding the HBM customer base.

Conclusion and Future Outlook

Comprehensive analysis from our research team indicates that the "Chipflation" driven by AI is by no means a short-term phenomenon. Total HBM shipments over the next three years are expected to maintain multiplier-level growth, leaping from less than 3 BGb in 2023 to potentially over 34 BGb by 2026. In the triopoly of SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron, the pace of capacity expansion and the yield rates of high-stack configurations (12-Hi/16-Hi) will likely be the decisive factors for success.

At the same time, the seemingly endless thirst for HBM capacity (breaking through 288 GB or perhaps even 400 GB) and speed (HBM4/4E) in next-generation chips (such as Rubin and MI450) from clients like Nvidia and AMD will continue to raise the technological barriers and wastage costs of advanced packaging. We estimate that, constrained by both TSMC's CoWoS capacity and the memory OEMs' wafer supply, the tight supply situation across the overall AI semiconductor supply chain may very well extend until the end of 2026.