Foundry Business and Market Trend Report ｜ October 2022
November 14, 2022
Key Takeaways:
TSMC Leading Node UT Rate Tracker
- We believe TSMC N4/N5 UT rate may maintain above 100% (down 4~6% from peak UT rate). Apple and Qualcomm’s flagship AP may support N4/N5 to become the most fully utilized among TSMC’s leading nodes; GPU and crypto applications may be downward adjusted due to respective market weakening.
TSMC Advanced Packaging Update
- We expect TSMC may slow down the capacity expansion plans in advanced packaging due to the weaker-than-expected demand from major HPC customers such as Nvidia and AMD.
The Impact of U.S. Restrictions on HPC
- We estimate U.S. Restrictions on HPC against China would have direct impact on TSMC’s N6/N7 demand by 2~3% in 2023. For TSMC’s N4/N5 and Samsung’s 4~8nm, we expect indirect exposures of 15~20% demand at TSMC and 4~6% of demand at Samsung due to major customers’ presence in China.
- With the U.S government tightening on HPC and Semi-Equipment restriction to China, we see most of the fabs like SMIC, HLMC, YMTC and CXMT was impacted immediately, which means the existing equipment is hard to execute trouble shooting and parts repairing without technology talents from these US vendors.
Smartphone AP Shipment Forecast (Y2023)
- We expect smartphone AP shipments to decline by 2~4% YoY in Y2023 to 1,280~1,330mn and Qualcomm may outperform the peers to grow 8~10% YoY in Y2023 due to the market share gains and higher 5G exposure.
Full insights delivered in Oct'22 Monthly Report.
The information we shared is only a short excerpt of our monthly report. If you have further interest in our research and findings, we would be happy to provide you with a more detailed and comprehensive report that includes additional insights and data points. Please contact us to access our full insights.
Authors
Lucy Chen
Lucy Chen, Vice President at Isaiah Research, has been working 25+ years in semiconductor industry. Focus on semiconductor engineering and supply chain research. Master in Application Chemistry, NCTU, Taiwan Currently as the Vice President at Isaiah Research and lead semiconductor research team to work on the supply chain analysis from IC design and IDM(Qualcomm, MediaTek, Intel, etc) to foundries(TSMC, Samsung, UMC, GlobalFoundries, SMIC) and OSATs(ASE,SPIL). Business development and customer management including raw materials and equipment suppliers, top tier foundries and smartphone brands. Used to work as the Engineering Director at Lam Research for 15+ years and Director of Technology & Marketing at SEZ Group. Focus on process engineering, product strategies planning, supply chain and customer management including foundries and memory.
