Isaiah Research: Foundry Business and Market Trend Report ｜ November 2022
December 14, 2022
Key Takeaways:
TSMC Leading Node UT Rate Tracker
- TSMC N3 UT may slowly step up in 1Q23. However, N4/5 UT may decrease to low 80s due to adjustment from Qualcomm and Nvidia. As for N6/7, the UT may drop to low 70s in 1Q23 due to demand and inventory problem of AMD and Nvidia.
TSMC Japan Fab23 Schedule Update
- Except a few K/m mini-line shipment on track in 4Q23, we see TSMC capacity expansion plan in Fab23 may slow down and thus revise down the capacity to 15~20K/m. The expansion plan in Fab22 may be also put off to Y2025.
Global 22/28nm Capacity Supply Analysis (Y2023~Y2024)
- We expect the total 22/28nm foundry capacities may continue to increase by 5~10% YoY in Y2023 and 15~20% YoY in Y2024, mainly driven by TSMC and UMC.
Smartphone AP Shipment (Y2023)
- We further revise down global smartphone AP shipments by 2~4% in Y2023 due to the continued inventory digestion in 1H23. This implies that smartphone AP shipments may fall by 4~7% in Y2023.
OLED DDIC Market Outlook (Y2023)
- Despite OLED DDIC over-supply on the weak smartphone demand, we believe IC design house may still aggressively book the foundry capacities for OLED DDIC to grow 30~40% YoY in Y2023, especially for Chinese IC design house.
Full insights delivered in Nov'22 Monthly Report.
The information we shared is only a short excerpt of our monthly report. If you have further interest in our research and findings, we would be happy to provide you with a more detailed and comprehensive report that includes additional insights and data points. Please contact us to access our full insights.
Authors
Lucy Chen
Lucy Chen, Vice President at Isaiah Research, has been working 25+ years in semiconductor industry. Focus on semiconductor engineering and supply chain research. Master in Application Chemistry, NCTU, Taiwan Currently as the Vice President at Isaiah Research and lead semiconductor research team to work on the supply chain analysis from IC design and IDM(Qualcomm, MediaTek, Intel, etc) to foundries(TSMC, Samsung, UMC, GlobalFoundries, SMIC) and OSATs(ASE,SPIL). Business development and customer management including raw materials and equipment suppliers, top tier foundries and smartphone brands. Used to work as the Engineering Director at Lam Research for 15+ years and Director of Technology & Marketing at SEZ Group. Focus on process engineering, product strategies planning, supply chain and customer management including foundries and memory.
