Foundry Business and Market Trend Report ｜ December 2022
January 06, 2023
Key Takeaways:
TSMC 4/5nm Supply and Demand Update
- We observed TSMC may revise down 4/5nm capacity expansion from prior an additional 30~35K/m to 5-10k/m only due to the weakened demand. In addition, Fab18A may convert 10-15% 5nm capacity to 3nm (N3E) and slow down tool installation in P7.
- Overall, TSMC 4/5nm demand is expected to grow by 7~8% YoY in Y2023. Even though the market demand in 1H23 may be stagnant, the momentum led by HPC customers for new-generation products may stimulate a growth in 2H23.
TSMC 2nm Development Schedule
- We see TSMC may recently lay the foundation for P1 in Fab20, Hsinchu. Tool may start moved-in from 2Q24. Planned capacity may be around 20~30K/m when running into MP schedule in 1H25.
NXP’s 12-inch Wafer Demand Allocation and Growth (Y2023)
- NXP’s outsourced 12-inch wafer demand at its top 2 foundries, namely GlobalFoundries and TSMC, is estimated to increase by 69~71% YoY in Y2023.
Qualcomm’s and MediaTek’s 5G AP Shipment Forecast (Y2023)
- For Qualcomm, we expect Qualcomm 5G AP to continue to grow by 10~15% YoY in Y2023 thanks to the market share gains from Samsung and the strength from low-end 5G AP which may launch 1-3 months earlier than MediaTek’s low-end 5G AP.
- For MediaTek, we believe that MediaTek’s 5G AP shipment may increase by 10~15% YoY as well with the rising penetration rate of 5G AP market in Y2023. Product mix of MediaTek’s flagship segment may only mildly increase 1~2% to 4~7% in Y2023.
Full insights delivered in Dec'22 Monthly Report.
The information we shared is only a short excerpt of our monthly report. If you have further interest in our research and findings, we would be happy to provide you with a more detailed and comprehensive report that includes additional insights and data points. Please contact us to access our full insights.
Authors
Lucy Chen
Lucy Chen, Vice President at Isaiah Research, has been working 25+ years in semiconductor industry. Focus on semiconductor engineering and supply chain research. Master in Application Chemistry, NCTU, Taiwan Currently as the Vice President at Isaiah Research and lead semiconductor research team to work on the supply chain analysis from IC design and IDM(Qualcomm, MediaTek, Intel, etc) to foundries(TSMC, Samsung, UMC, GlobalFoundries, SMIC) and OSATs(ASE,SPIL). Business development and customer management including raw materials and equipment suppliers, top tier foundries and smartphone brands. Used to work as the Engineering Director at Lam Research for 15+ years and Director of Technology & Marketing at SEZ Group. Focus on process engineering, product strategies planning, supply chain and customer management including foundries and memory.
